CSPA
Advisory - 1.30.08
Fall Run Salmon Decline
Catastrophic!
During
this past fall there was a great deal of
speculation among anglers over the absolutely
dismal salmon season and the lack of
information on the status of the adult
salmon return from the ocean. That has
suddenly changed according to an article by
Dan Bacher. Dan
has quoted the Pacific Fishery
Management Council (PFMC - regulates fishing
in federal waters) tentative data which
demonstrates an catastrophic decline in the
fall run Chinook salmon fishery. This run has
been the mainstay of California’s and
Southern Oregon’s salmon anglers and
commercial fishermen until now.
If
this data is data is verified during upcoming
PFMC meetings, commercial and recreational
salmon fishing in California could be closed
or severely restricted in 2008 as implied by
an internal PFMC memo that quotes their
Executive Director Donald McIsaac as saying
...
“[t]he magnitude of the low abundance,
should it be confirmed in verification efforts
now underway, is such that the opening of all
... fisheries impacting this important salmon
stock will be questioned in the upcoming
Council process to set 2008 ocean salmon
seasons. This is particularly disconcerting in
that this stock has consistently been the
healthy ‘work horse’ target stock for
salmon fisheries off California and most of
Oregon.”
“It
is important to note that the current
information needs to be verified and
validated,” explained McIssac. “However,
it is typical that the estimates at this stage
do not vary much from the finalized values.”
Should
fisheries need to be shut down to protect the
survival of the fall run, it will bring to a
close an area when anadromous species such as
salmon, steelhead, striped bass and sturgeon
were the premier Northern California
fisheries. The economic repercussions on the
recreational and commercial fishing industries
will be devastating to those who activities
provide the goods and services that assist the
angling public’s ability to undertake their
‘right to fish’.
Here’s
what we know for now. The adult fall run
salmon spawning escapement (the fish that
returned to the Central Valley rivers) was
estimated to be 90,000 fish. Compare this to
the 275,000 that returned to spawn the
previous year! The Sacramento River system
returns were 88,000 fish, while the San
Joaquin River system returns were only 2,000
adult fall run salmon. The adult escapement
for this fall run in 2007 failed to meet the
management goal set by the PFMC for the first
time in 15 years and for only the second time
in 35 years. This escapement goal is a
management tool set to ensure the fall run’s
viability. Failure to meet this goal can
result in various outcomes depending on the
extent of the failure and the projected stock
condition as anticipated by the federal and
state fishery managers.
Given
the importance of this fishery to both
California and Oregon, I expect a significant
reduction in the salmon fishing season along
with harvest curtailments. Which takes us to the
reasons for the decline of the fall run. The
scientists will say they’re not sure; it could
be due to a number of factors or perhaps a
complex interaction of those factors. More
studies are needed.
There
are a number of potentially important reasons
for the decline, including:
•
The changing conditions in the
ocean that may cause that environment to be
unable to sustain the number young fish to
maturity necessary for spawning.
•
The huge problems with the decline
of the Delta’s ability to sustain a food web
needed by young salmon that migrate down the
tributaries into the Delta on the way to the
sea. If the fish don’t find enough food on
their way through the Delta, you don’t have to
worry about their potential difficulties
surviving in the ocean.
•
You might recall we have another
Delta problem. Many of the young fish are
carried across the Delta instead of making it
into San Francisco Bay due to the water export
impacts of the State and Federal Projects. Many
of these fish don’t make it to the pumping
facilities because they die along the way.
Starvation and predation by a number of species
that like the interior Delta channels take a
toll, but science has never quantified the full
extent of that impact.
•
Then there are the losses of those
fish that are not salvaged by what are
euphemistically called the water projects fish
screens (they are louvered panels not positive
plate screens). Don’t forget the losses that
occur during the salvage effort.
•
Another problem are the non-native
invasive species that have so significantly
changed the estuary’s food productivity and
how that food is consumed, like new types of
phytoplankton, zooplankton and the overbite
clam.
•
Toxic pollution compounds many of
these problems as hundreds of miles of Delta
waterways our seriously out of compliance with
the Clean Water Act and other state water
quality laws. This can be very detrimental to
the food web and its ability to produce the food
where and when needed by fish including salmon.
•
The recent decline of the delta
smelt and other pelagic species coincides with
significant increases in exports from Delta by
the state and federally operated water projects.
Annual exports increased by 25 percent from 1994
-1998 and from 2001-2006, draining the Delta of
more than 1 million acre-feet of additional
water than used to be exported.
•
Annual exports in 2005 and 2006
were the first and third highest export levels
on record. Wintertime exports have increased by
49 percent from 1994-1998 and from 2001-2006.
Springtime exports have increased by 30 percent.
Delta smelt and salmon smolts are particularly
vulnerable during winter and spring, when
juvenile fish move downstream to rearing habitat
in the Delta.
Cutting
to the chase, I’m betting on the fall run
salmon being victims of impacts associated with
the ever increasing export of water that
deprives the Bay-Delta ecosystem of roughly half
of the fresh water that used to flow through the
system naturally. The Delta food web disaster
has resulted in record low numbers of Delta
smelt, longfin smelt, juvenile striped bass and
threadfin shad in the Delta since 2005. During
that year an unprecedented 6.4 million-acre feet
of water was exported out of the Delta by the
state and federal governments.
Maybe
Bob Dylan was right when he said you don’t
have to be a weatherman to know which way the
wind blows. Just maybe you don’t have to be a
biologist to know which way the water flows. It
was a wise man that said in California it flowed
uphill to money.
If
you haven’t done so, help us fight back for
the fish and the estuary by signing up as a CSPA
member and get your friends that fish to do the
same. If enough people sign up it will help
level the playing field.
John
Beuttler, Conservation Director
California
Sportfishing Protection Alliance
1360
Neilson Street,
Berkeley,
CA 94792
